HD Research
The Home Depot, Inc.
Next ex-dividend date: 2026-09-03 (87 days away)
3.00%
Forward yield
$9.320 / yr per share
Yield percentile (5y)
P 100
1.9% (P10)2.3% (med)2.7% (P90)
Quality score
72/100
Good · Moderate payout risk
Annual / share
$9.320
Quarterly · next ex-date 09-03 (87d)
vs 5y P90 reference
-11%
$310.78 vs $343.62 (5y P90 price)
Refreshed 2026-06-08Data coverage High — 40y history
01Fundamentals
HD offers a 2.24% dividend yield with 40 consecutive years of payments and robust 5Y dividend growth of 28.56%, but its substantial 4.6× Debt/Equity ratio and a low moat score of 2.0/20 present significant income stability risks.
Bull caseThe company demonstrates strong commitment to shareholder returns through 40 consecutive dividend years and exceptional 5Y dividend growth of 28.56%, supported by a high ROE of 128.38%.
Bear caseThe substantial Debt/Equity ratio of 4.6× and a very low moat score of 2.0/20 in a cyclical sector expose dividend income to significant risk, further complicated by a 0.76pp yield discrepancy in cross-validation.
02Risk & quality
| Payout ratio | Moderate · 73.0% |
| Overall quality score | 72 / 100 · Good |
Score breakdown — five dimensions, each /2020 + 10 + 2 + 19 + 10 = 72
20.0/20
Consistency
10.0/20
Payout safety
↓
2.0/20
Moat
19.1/20
Growth rate
10.0/20
Balance sheet
- Consistency 20.0/20 — HD has raised or maintained its dividend for 40 consecutive years, qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat (25+ year streak). The dimension caps at 10 years, so 40 years comfortably clears the ceiling for full credit.
- Payout safety 10.0/20 — HD pays out 73.0% of free cash flow as dividends — still inside the safe band, with some headroom before reaching 80%, the level commonly flagged as strained. Manageable as long as earnings hold up.
- Moat 2.0/20 — HD operates in a sector (Consumer Cyclical) with limited competitive defenses — earnings are exposed to cycles, commodity prices, or disruption. The dividend can still be safe, but the business doesn't have the structural margin protection that top moats provide.
- Growth rate 19.1/20 — HD's dividend has grown about 28.6% per year over 5 years — exceptional pace, well above any normal dividend-grower baseline. A rate this high usually reflects either a low starting base (the dividend was small to begin with) or aggressive distribution ramps from a recent payout policy change.
- Balance sheet 10.0/20 — A composite of return-on-equity and inverse leverage. HD's 128.4% ROE and a 4.6× debt-to-equity ratio leaves this dimension in the middle of the pack — neither flagged for weakness nor in the financial-flexibility tier of top-scoring names.
03Price reference
$10,000at current price →$300/ yr in dividends
Math: 3.00% forward yield. Historical 5y DGR is 28.6%/yr — past growth does not guarantee future results.
Below are statistical price references from the last 5 years of trading, anchored to historical drawdown events. They describe where the price has been — not where it should be.
$267.05
$343.62
$310.78
5y P10
5y P90
Now
| Current price | $310.78 |
| 5y P90 reference (high-yield 10% tail) | $343.62 — -10.6% lower |
| 5y P10 reference (low-yield 10% tail) | $267.05 — 14.1% lower |
| 5y max observed yield (at P10 price) | 3.5% |
| Annual dividend (frozen forward) | $9.320 / share · 3.00% yield |
Historical anchor · 2008-10 Global Financial Crisis
Low $11.66 · drawdown 22 days · yield reached 6.7%
Lehman collapse triggered global credit freeze; S&P fell ~50% peak-to-trough.
Important — this is reference data, not investment advice.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.